Which way from here?

With the recent announcement that Warner Brothers is going to completely subsume its formerly autononmous junior studio, New Line, and also cut back on production, I believe that every major studio has announced a reduction in their production schedules for 2008 and 2009. They are hedging their bets somewhat by increasing the number of films they buy into for distribution. Most of these films are financed by hedge fund money and some traditional equity groups. While they are not officially studio productions, they tend to be of roughly the same size and scale as a solo studio effort. What is striking about all of these efforts; as diverse as MIM'S ISLAND, 21 and STREET KINGS, is that they are almost all mediocre films, or worse.

You used to be able to count on independently produced big budget films to be better than their studio bretheren--MICHAEL CLAYTON is a recent rare example of this--but now I believe the opposite is true. I'm not sure why, but almost all of these big budgeted indies are flawed, usually from the script stage. The usual rigor that a studio developed film goes through has obviously ruined more than a few decent concepts. But this process also distilled other projects down to their essence and made them better films--think about the Bourne series as an example of this. Perhaps it's because the studios don't have as much at risk when they pick up one of these independently financed projects and so don't push back as hard, but the end result is a bunch of mediocre films. Blame it on release schedules, but the clear evidence of this trend is that there is only one, count it--ONE--American film in competition at Cannes this year.

Which leads to my question of the day. If the people who made most of the decent mainstream product are making fewer films, and the titles they are using to fill in the gaps aren't as good, what is going to happen to domestic box office over the next couple years? It is already softening, with hits few and far between. Moreover, what will happen to all the ancillary businesses--think dvd and pay tv--that rely on these mainstream titles to drive their business? A degree of apathy on the part of film consumers, fueled by the bad economy, could really take root. The danger from this kind of attitude is that it will quickly infect audience perceptions of all films, genuinely indie or otherwise. Well executed independent titles that need the goodwill and benefit of the doubt from filmgoers and consumer to succeed will be painted with the same negative brush that is applied to the mediocre studio releases. I believe that this is unfortunately already happening. So what can an independent filmmaker do in such an environment? Well, more than ever I think people are craving honest, creative storytelling. They might not believe it is out there for them anymore, but if a really good film is released, I do believe that people will find it and pay for the pleasure of experiencing it.

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