Trent's Fearless Oscar Predictions

First, let me get this out of the way: I think The Dark Knight was the best picture I saw last year. For such a high-budget film with an extraordinary amount of hype to not only deliver the action, but actually add depth to the Batman mythos, was a remarkable accomplishment. Why wasn’t it nominated for Best Picture? IMHO, much like the Heisman Trophy will never go to an offensive lineman, Oscar simply does not seem willing to hand over their little golden man over to a “comic book” movie, regardless of its quality (though they don’t seem to mind the cash flow these comic book movies bring in every summer).

That said, it’s time to focus on the films that are nominated, with my fearless predictions for who will walk away with Oscar come next Sunday, Feb 22:

BEST PICTURE


1. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

   
2. Frost/Nixon

   
3. Milk

   
4. The Reader

   
5. Slumdog Millionaire

The nominations for Milk and Slumdog Millionaire are generally considered expected and deserved, as well as, to a lesser extent, Frost/Nixon. The two most “questionable” nominations (as well as the ones most viewed as “stealing” The Dark Knight’s spot) are The Reader and Benjamin Button. I think The Reader can be ruled out of winning because it has received some mixed reviews, as well as a bit of a backlash against its nomination (with some pointing out that it is becoming known more for Kate Winslet’s nude scenes than its Holocaust theme). Furthermore, there has also been a bit of a surprising backlash against Benjamin Button as well, with some critics dismissing it as “Forrest Gump 2.0” (from the director and star of Se7en of all things!).

Frost/Nixon might get some strong support because of its post-Bush “press taking down an evil Republican” theme. However, I think its nomination will be viewed as reward enough. Furthermore, A) Ron Howard was a winner only recently for A Beautiful Mind (and the Academy does tend to try to “spread the wealth,” so to speak, with their award) and B) Oscar has a history of nominating films based in a newsroom, TV studio or courtroom, yet these movies hardly ever win (see nominees such as Michael Clayton, The Verdict, Broadcast News, Network and, fittingly, All the President’s Men as examples).

That leaves Slumdog Millionaire and Milk to fight it out. Slumdog Millionaire will arrive with a lot momentum from its recent strong showing at the BAFTA awards. Furthermore, though it is viewed by some as a daring indie film (and its India setting is an underused and underappreciated setting in Western movies), it has a familiar theme (one man or woman overcoming great obstacles in order to succeed) as old as the movies themselves. The Academy would be quite comfortable handing this film the Oscar.

However, Milk’s main theme, the near epic biopic of a revolutionary figure, is one Oscar is quite comfortable rewarding as well (see winners A Beautiful Mind, Gandhi, Patton and Braveheart among others). Furthermore, gay marriage is a passionate cause of the moment for many in Hollywood and rewarding Milk could be viewed by some voters as a chance to make a statement. Finally, the Academy received some unwelcomed criticism a few years ago when Crash upset Brokeback Mountain, with a few feeling the cause of the upset being some Academy voters being “uncomfortable” voting for a film with a homosexual theme (there is a bit of justification for this, IMHO, as I feel that Brokeback is the better film as well). This is not to say that Milk will win just because of its gay theme, as it has received strong reviews across the board as well as placed high in many Top 10 lists at the end of the year. Still, I would be ignoring the elephant in the room if I didn’t feel that its pro-gay message, as well as the chance for some voters to “make amends” for Brokeback, will help it this year.

My pick: Milk

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

2. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

   
3. Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

   
4. Stephen Daldry, The Reader

   
5. Gus Van Sant, Milk

I was hoping for at least a nomination for The Dark Knight’s Christopher Nolan here, but it was not to be (I guess the Academy felt any director could have pulled off the truck chase and hospital explosion in Chicago, as well as the helicopter abduction in downtown Hong Kong so seamlessly, but again, that’s just my opinion) and the five nominations here mirror the Best Picture nominees.

Like Best Picture, I feel the contest is between Boyle and Van Sant, with Van Sant winning. I feel he will ride momentum for what will turn out to be a good night for Milk. Furthermore, he is the better known director and is generally well regarded (though he has had a few train wrecks in his career, such as Even Cowgirls Get the Blues and the unforgivable Psycho insult, er, remake).

My pick: Gus Van Sant